There is growing speculation amongst British journalists that Obama sees little value to sustaining the special relationship that America and Britain have enjoyed and continued to forge since the Great War time. It began with President Roosevelt and Winston Churchill. Since that time the leader of each country has made much effort to sustain this relationship. Now however there are growing reports that this is about to significantly diminish.
President Obama has made it known that he wants to play down the special relationship and court with other key countries so that Americas relationships across other countries can be strengthened.
It makes good sense for America to strengthen its relationships with other countries, as its relationships with some countries is relatively weak, especially after the Bush administration, But one would argue there needs to be some balance between strengthening these and potentially weakening the relationship with Britain to the detriment of future relations.
One of the biggest criticisms comes from Obama's speech to outline his administration's plan for America's involvement in Afghanistan. He made much of the surge of number of troops over the previous 18 months, but failed to reflect any input from Britain, who like America has experienced the highest level of deaths in decades. Britain has 10 000 troops in active service in Afghanistan, which is far more than any of the other allies. Having lost 237 of its soldiers, it was saddening that there was no mention of the sacrifice made in this common goal.
With both the lack of mention of Britain in many speeches and snubs such as the removal of a Winston Churchill bust from the Oval office (a gift from Britain), have all been viewed with wariness. One rumor based upon the apparent poor treatment of Obama's grandfather in Kenya at the hands of Britain, has done little to create any particular warmth towards Britain, Further, Obama has little or no links to Britain via education or visitation. A criticism therefore is that Obama lacks any recognition or understanding of political history.
This has been reflected by his major act on gaining the presidency. He withdrew plans for a missile base to be located in Eastern Europe. Whilst this appeased the Russians, it betrayed the Czechs and Polish, who have only just been released from Russia's control. Both countries are enthusiastic about becoming western allies, so their continued support and engagement is highly important.
There is some irony in the fact that Obama is spending time courting the French and German leaders when these 2 nations did the most to oppose the war in Iraq and have also done little to support with troops in Afghanistan. Is it a case that the thought of a European super state is a threat to America? Does he think that in forging relationships he will be able to get them to support America more in efforts within Afghanistan? The French/German relationship is very strong - I do not see them shifting their opinions very easily. In deed history has shown repeatedly that the only country willing to take decisive military action with America has always been Britain.
In fairness, Britain dropped a ball in the way that they handled the Locherbie Bomber early release. It seemed to do so without good consultation with America. Having said that, could this have been a deliberate move not to intervene against the Scottish Government given the lack of recognition & international respect shown towards the UK. There is a view that Britain kowtows to America, but there was certainly no evidence of this in this instance.
A complication here however is the likely end to Labour's 10 years of leadership. Brown although equipped to deal with an economic crisis has failed to inspire the British public. He has backed down on proposals due to political outcry. This can be seen as listening and responding to the public/back benchers due to poor leadership. The country is tiring of the same political party, and so it looks very much like the Conservatives will come to power in 2010. The Tories have a different view towards Europe than Labour. This may have a stark impact on Britain as a sovereign country. Britain undoubtedly needs the strong relationship with America if it wants to remain an independent country. Therefore there will much to be done to sell the need for this relationship to be re-calibrated with America.
Diplomats remain ever optimistic and hope that the Obama will demonstrate a willingness to listen, making it easier to form friendlier relationships. Opportunists, see that there could a chance to develop a relationship much like the Thatcher – Reagan years. Thatcher was not afraid to speak her mind, but Brown is a shy man and I cannot see him being this forceful or persuasive. Cameron, the Conservative leader may be more dogmatic. Such dialogue may make for better decision-making, but will be reliant on a mutual respect. The challenge will be to sustain a good enough relationship to do this. Having said this Britain needs America as a good ally, as does America need this of Britain. I will hedge my bets that Obama will do enough not to bring irreparable damage, but the development of Europe as a super state will be politically testing. I should mention that we ought not take our eye off China, as it consumes more, its economy strengthens and it becomes more dominant. It may be only a matter of time before we exchange oil in yen not dollars. You can see why Obama must widen his wings. Let’s hope he can keep relationships fruitful and constructive.
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